The latest Global Intelligence report by Manulife Investment Management highlights key trends and inflection points

Manulife Investment Management released its semi-annual report with firmwide analysis and relevant perspectives from its investment teams. The H1 2022 report discusses the factors contributing to recent market volatility. It explores how the Russia-Ukraine conflict, rising inflation, supply chain issues, sustainability, and worker shortages could affect investment opportunities as the global economy finds its post-pandemic footing.

Considering the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the context of global macroeconomic trends— Frances Donald, the chief global economist and strategist for multi-asset solutions, provides a medium-term perspective on the changing situation in Ukraine. Frances observes that the event's trajectory confirms the team's previous prediction that stagflationary dynamics will prevail in the first half of 2022, while growth and inflation will be hampered in the second half. Net-zero emissions pledges exist, but only a few institutions are on track to reach their goals. The importance of banks in leading the world toward a lower-carbon future is discussed by Frederick Isleib, CFA, director of ESG research and integration, and Omar Soliman, ESG analyst. According to their findings, while many institutions have pledged to reach net-zero, only a few have kept up the rate of change required to achieve those targets.

From farm to fork: agricultural infrastructure technologies address supply chain vulnerabilities— Oliver S. Williams IV, CFA, global head of agriculture investments, and Recep C. Kendircioglu, CFA, FRM, global leader of infrastructure investments, make convincing arguments for using controlled environmental agriculture to increase agricultural production and manage supply chain challenges (CEA). With the agriculture industry facing a future marked by natural resource scarcity, supply chain vulnerabilities, and more frequent extreme weather events, higher adoption of CEA technology in food production may offer distinct benefits to open-field farming while also lowering carbon emissions.

Not all pluses are created equal: the case for an active approach to fixed-income spread sectors—Howard C. Greene, CFA, co-head of U.S. core and core-plus fixed income, Daniel S. Janis III, head of global multi-sector fixed income, and Endre Pedersen, deputy CIO, global fixed income, and CIO, global emerging-market fixed income, believe that taking an active, broad-based approach to the markets will solve the challenges that the set While the concerns posed by increasing rates, strong inflation, and tight valuations are unlikely to abate anytime soon, active investors still have several options: Global diversification, allocation to underutilized industries, targeted yield curve positioning, and dynamic currency exposure are all tried and true strategies that can provide value in challenging markets.

The impact of inflation on retirement portfolios: estimating future costs now— Alex Grassino, head of the macro strategy for North America, and Émilie Paquet, FSA, head of strategic initiatives and innovation for multi-asset solutions, explain how tiny increases in inflation can have a significant impact on retirement portfolios. After presenting the team's long-term view for inflation and the reasons driving it to levels not seen in decades, they show how investors can quantify the effects on their portfolios using some elementary methods. They also go over the specific steps that investors may take right now to reduce the negative impact rising prices can have on their retirement plans.

Five trends shaping the US labor market—Erica Camilleri, global macro strategist, Frances Donald, and Alex Grassino, head of macro strategy, North America, multi-asset solutions, contextualize recent labor market developments and argue that economists must think outside the box to better understand the rapidly changing job market.